Hondo yakasviba yakatenderedza semiconductor indasitiri yakaenderera mberi kubva gore rino.Pakupera kwaMbudzi, nyika dzeEU dzakabvumirana kugovera mari inodarika mabhiriyoni makumi mana emaeuro kuti iwedzere kugadzirwa kweEU semiconductor.Chirongwa cheEU ndechekuwedzera chikamu chekugadzira chip chepasirese kubva pa10% kusvika pa20% panosvika 2030.
Hapana zvakangoitika, yakambotonga mumunda weiyo yakabatanidzwa wedunhu semiconductor Japan zvakare usatya kusurukirwa, mazuva mashoma apfuura, Toyota, Denso, Sony, Nippon Telegraph uye Telephone Corporation (NTT), Japan Electric (NEC), Softbank, Armor Man, Mitsubishi UFJ Bank vakabatana vakagadzira chip process kambani Rapidus, inoronga kuwana kuwanda kugadzirwa kwemachipisi pazasi 2 nanometers muna 2027. Sezvo yekutanga yakakura yakasanganiswa yedunhu semiconductor chip, United States mune chip tekinoroji yakakwirira point control isinganetsi, yakasainwa mukati. Nyamavhuvhu gore rino kuita iyo "Chip neSainzi Act", ichave rubatsiro rwakakura mukuumbwa kwepasirese kwepamusoro-soro yakasanganiswa yedunhu semiconductor chip industry chain siphon effect, parizvino, Samsung, TSMC yakasarudza kuvaka mafekitori muUnited States. , kunyanya kunanga chip tekinoroji pazasi 5 nanometers.
Makwikwi epasi rose eChip akatangazve, China haigone kungova muoni.Chokwadi ndechekuti, kune rumwe rutivi, China semiconductor indasitiri iri kudzvanyirirwa zvakanyanya nevakwikwidzi, asi zvakare inosimbisa kukosha kwekuzvimiririra kutonga kweiyo semiconductor yekugovera cheni.Mafemu akati wandei emasimba ebrokerage akataura kuti ane tarisiro yakasimba nezve budiriro yekutsiva semiconductor munharaunda mumakore mashoma anotevera, zvichikurudzira kuti vanoisa mari vatarise nzvimbo dzakakosha senge michina, zvishandiso uye kurongedza uye kuyedzwa munzira yenzvimbo.
Midziyo yekumusoro: maitiro enzvimbo anowedzera
Mukusimudzira kukurumidza kweindasitiri yemumba semiconductor uye dhiraivha yemitemo yenyika, vagadziri vemidziyo yemumba semiconductor kune rumwe rutivi, vanoenderera mberi nekuwedzera zvikamu zvezvigadzirwa, uye zvishoma nezvishoma kutyora kutonga kwevagadziri vekunze;kune rumwe rutivi, zvishoma nezvishoma kuvandudza kushanda kwechigadzirwa, uye zvishoma nezvishoma kupinda mumusika wepamusoro.Kunyangwe iyo semiconductor michina yekumhanyisa maitiro enzvimbo, asi kutsiva kwepamba kuchiri munhanho yekutanga, inotarisirwa kuyambuka kutenderera kweindasitiri.
Pacific Securities muongorori Liu Guoqing akataura kuti, maererano nemhando yemidziyo, kunyangwe debinding midziyo yakave yakawana nzvimbo, asi muCMP, PVD, etching, kupisa kupisa uye zvimwe zvikamu zveyero yenzvimbo ichiri yakaderera, nepo mufotolithography. , midziyo yekusimudzira yekuputira panguva ino chete kuti iwane budiriro kubva ku0 kusvika 1. Naizvozvo, pazere, mwero wenzvimbo uchine imwe nzvimbo yekuvandudza, kunyanya muUnited States kuburikidza ne "Chip neScience Act" uye mutemo wepamba. nhanho yekuwedzera mari mumunda we semiconductor, isu tinotenda kuti mu "downstream kuwedzera + kutsiva kwemba" theme, vagadziri vemidziyo yemumba vanotarisirwa kukurumidza kukwira.
Kubva pamaonero ezvakakosha zvemakambani epamba semiconductor akanyorwa makambani, kuita kwezvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zve2022 semiconductor indasitiri yemidziyo yakatanga kukurumidza kukura, iyo indasitiri yekuwedzera kwemari ye65% gore negore;uyezve, purofiti yeindasitiri iri kuramba ichiwedzera.Zvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zvesemiconductor indasitiri yemidziyo inobviswa net profit margin average ye19.0%, 2017 kusvika parizvino gore-ne-gore kukwira kumusoro kwakakosha;panguva imwe chete, yepamba semiconductor midziyo yakanyorwa makambani anorayira kazhinji kukura kwepamusoro.
Kupinza kutsiva kwemidziyo yesemiconductor ndiro dingindira guru.Yang Shaohui, muongorori weEverbright Securities, anokurudzira vanoisa mari kuti vateerere kune vanogadzira semiconductor michina SMIC, Shengmei Shanghai, North Huachuang, Core Source Micro, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingke, Wanye Enterprise, Precision Measurement Electronics, Tianjun Technology, Huaxing Yuangchuang , Delonghi Laser, uye Lightforce Technology.
Midstream zvinhu: kupinda panguva yekuvandudza yegoridhe
Zvemidziyo semiconductor, kunyangwe iyo US chip bhiri yakawedzera zvirambidzo munzvimbo dzeChina dzepamberi, asi China yakafambira mberi zvakanyanya mukukura-ane chekuita semiconductor zvinhu chikamu, semiconductor zvinhu makambani anotarisirwa kuumba yakanaka mhinduro loop mushure mekuwana kuenderera. mirairo, ichivimba neyakagadzika capital inflows yekusimudzira kuwedzera kweiyo iripo semiconductor zvinhu chigadzirwa kugona uye chizvarwa chitsva chesemiconductor zvinhu Kugadzirwa kwechigadzirwa.
Muongorori weGuangda Securities, Zhao Naidi, akataura kuti mumamiriro ezvinhu ekudyidzana kwenyika dzepasi rose, kuunzwa kwemabhiri akadaro kana marongero muUnited States hakubatsire kufambisira mberi kwekudyidzana kwepasi rose, asi kunomhanyisa kusimudzira kupatsanurwa kwemaindasitiri ane hukama.Isu tinodawo kukurumidza kuzadza gaka riri pakati peChina mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakakosha uye nedanho repamusoro repasi rose.
Parizvino, iyo yemba semiconductor yekugadzira zvinhu zvemukati mwero weanosvika gumi muzana, zvakanyanya zvinoenderana nekunze.Parizvino, China iri kuitawo nhamburiko huru kutsigira indasitiri yekadhi mutsipa, uye vagadziri vedu vemiconductor zvinhu vakawedzera kufambira mberi kwekutsiva kwenzvimbo.Mumunda wemaseketi akabatanidzwa, kukwidziridzwa kwekutsiva kwenzvimbo, kusimudzira tekinoroji uye rutsigiro rwemitemo yenyika maindasitiri uye kumwe kutsigirwa kwakanaka kwakawanda, makambani epamba semiconductor zvinhu makambani anotarisirwa kuunza nguva yebudiriro yegoridhe, iyo indasitiri chain yemabhizinesi emhando yepamusoro. zvinotarisirwa kutungamirira mukubatsirwa.
Ichangobva kuvakwa wafer machira ichave huru nhandare yehondo yemunharaunda semiconductor zvinhu kuwedzera chikamu chavo.Hu Yang muongorori wezvekuchengetedza akataura kuti ikozvino nyowani huru yekugadzira machira nguva yakatanga muna 2022-2024, achifunga kuti nguva yehwindo yegoridhe ichaenderera mberi kwemakore 2-3, panguva iyo ndiyo nguva yakanakisa yemabhizinesi kutsiva semiconductor zvinhu mudzimba. .Zvinokurudzirwa kuti vanoisa mari vatarise paJingrui Electric Material, Yakasimba Nyowani Material, Nanda Optoelectronics, Jacques Technology, Jianghua Micro, Juhua, Haohua Technology, Huatech Gasi, Shanghai Xinyang, nezvimwe.
Kudzika kwakadzika kurongedza uye kuyedzwa: mugove wemusika unoramba uchiwedzera
IC kurongedza uye kuyedzwa iri muzasi kweiyo indasitiri ketani, iyo inogona kukamurwa kuita zvikamu zviviri: kurongedza uye kuyedzwa.Pasi pemaitiro ekusimudzira ehunyanzvi uye kupatsanurwa kwevashandi muIC indasitiri, yakawanda IC yekurongedza uye yekuyedza maodha inoyerera ichibuda kubva kune yechinyakare IDM vagadziri, izvo zvinofadza kuzasi kurongedza uye kuyedza mabhizinesi.
Mamwe masosi emaindasitiri anoratidza kuti mumakore achangopfuura, vagadziri vepamba vanga vachikurumidza kuunganidza matekinoroji epamberi kuburikidza nekubatanidza uye kutora, uye tekinoroji yepuratifomu yakave yakanyatso kuwiriraniswa nevagadziri vekunze, uye chikamu cheChinese chepamberi yekurongedza munyika chiri kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma.Tichipesana nemashure emitemo yepamba inoshingairira kutsigira kurongedza kwepamberi, nhanho yekuvandudza yemukati yekurongedza epamberi inotarisirwa kukurumidza mune ramangwana.Panguva imwecheteyo, pasi pemashure ekunetsana kwekutengeserana pakati peChina neUS, kudiwa kwekutsiva mudzimba kwakasimba, mugove wevatungamiriri vekurongedza wepamba uchawedzera, uye vagadziri vekurongedza mudzimba vachine purofiti yakakura.
Nekusimudzirwa kweiyo semiconductor indasitiri yekufambisa, mutengo wevanhu uye mukana wemutero, yepasi rose IC yekurongedza huwandu huri kuchinjika zvishoma nezvishoma kuenda kuAsia Pacific dunhu uye indasitiri inoramba ichikura.Zvinoenderana nedata remasangano ane hukama, huwandu hwekukura kwemusika wekuChina weIC yekurongedza hwave hwakanyanya kudarika iyo yepasirese kweanopfuura makore gumi;vakanganiswa nedenda, macheni mazhinji ekugovera epasirese semiconductors anoramba akaomesesa kana kuvhiringwa panguva yedenda, uye kupihwa kuri kuramba kwakaoma kana kukanganiswa panguva yedenda, kupindirana nekudiwa kwakasimba kwemotokari nyowani dzemagetsi, AioT uye AR/VR. , nezvimwewo, mazhinji semiconductor foundries ane yakakwirira kugona kushandiswa.Zvichienderana nekushandiswa kwakasimba kwesimba uye kuenderera mberi kwekuda kunotarisirwa mukati medenda, mashandisirwo emari epasi rose evagadziri vesemiconductor anotarisirwa kuramba akasimba uye vagadziri vepakeji vanotarisirwa kubatsirwa zvizere.
Dongguan Securities muongorori, Liu Menglin, akataura kuti China ine kukwikwidza kwakasimba kwemumba mukurongedza uye kuyedza, uye ine tarisiro pamusoro pekuvandudzwa kwemhindu kunounzwa nekuenderera mberi kwekurongedza kumberi kune indasitiri pasi pemashure epamusoro boom munguva refu.Zvinokurudzirwa kuteerera Changdian Technology, Huatian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingfang Technology uye mamwe mabhizinesi ane hukama.
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Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-17-2022